Will Budapest Memorandum Protect Ukraine From Nuclear Attack?

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The Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances comprises of three political agreements signed at The Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) in Budapest, Hungary on December 5, 1994, the Budapest Memorandum provided security assurances to Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine in lieu of signing the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT).

New Delhi (ABC Live India): The Russian-Ukrainian War has entered into 24 days, and no amicable and peaceful settlement is seen even after various peace talks between both the countries.

It is strange to note that no country has come forward to make efforts in this direction seriously, as per current situations from war fields; the war is not easy to end on battleground until Russia use extra ordinary weaponry in the war to its early climax, like nuclear etc.

The ABC Research Team keeping constant watch suggests its readers kindly go through the following content provided by the Wikipedia which will enable them to easily grasp the ABC research report on the Causes of Russian-Ukrainian War.

Know The Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances  

The Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances comprises of three political agreements signed at The Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) in Budapest, Hungary on December 5, 1994, the Budapest Memorandum provided security assurances to Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine in lieu of signing the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT).

The memorandum was originally signed by three nuclear powers: the Russian Federation, the United Kingdom and the United States, and China and France gave somewhat weaker individual assurances in separate documents that in event of any nuclear threat all will protect these three countries coming out of USSR in 1991 in accordance with Belavezha Accords.

Further the Budapest Memorandum prohibits the Russian Federation, the United Kingdom and the United States from threatening or using military force or economic coercion against Ukraine, Belarus, and Kazakhstan. As a result of other agreements and the memorandum, between 1993 and 1996, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine gave up their nuclear weapons.

How Ukraine Lost it Nuclear Weapons through Budapest Memorandum

Until Ukraine gave up its nuclear weapons, it had the world's third-largest nuclear weapons stockpile, of which Ukraine had physical but no operational control. Russia controlled the codes needed to operate the nuclear weapons through electronic Permissive Action Links and the Russian command and control system, although this could not be sufficient guarantee against Ukrainian access.

On 23 May 1992, Russia, the U.S., Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine signed the Lisbon Protocol to the START I treaty, ahead of ratifying the treaty later. The protocol committed Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine to adhere to the NPT as non-nuclear weapons states as soon as possible. However the terms for the transfer of the nuclear warheads were not agreed, and some Ukrainian officials and parliamentarians started to discuss the possibility of retaining some of the modern Ukrainian built RT-23 (SS-24) missiles and Soviet built warheads.

In 1993 two regiments of UR-100N (SS-19) missiles in Ukraine were withdrawn to storage because warhead components were past their operational life, and Ukraine's political leadership realised that Ukraine could not become a credible nuclear military force as they could not maintain the warheads and ensure long term nuclear safety. Later in 1993 the Ukrainian and Russian governments signed a series of bilateral agreements giving up Ukrainian claims to the nuclear weapons and the Black Sea Fleet, in return for $2.5 billion in gas and oil debt cancellation and future supplies of fuel for its nuclear power reactors.

 Ukraine agreed to ratify the START I and NPT treaties promptly. This caused severe public criticism and Ukrainian Defence Minister Morozov resigned.

On 18 November 1993 the Rada passed a motion agreeing to START-I but renouncing the Lisbon Protocol, suggesting Ukraine would only decommission 36% of missile launchers and 42% of the warheads on its territory, and demanded financial compensation for the tactical nuclear weapons removed in 1992. This caused U.S. diplomatic consternation, and the following day Ukrainian President Kravchuk said "we must get rid of [these nuclear weapons]. This is my viewpoint from which I have not and will not deviate." He then brought a new proposal to the Rada.

On 15 December 1993, U.S. Vice President Al Gore visited Moscow for a meeting. Following side discussions, a U.S and Russian delegation, including U.S. Deputy Secretary of Defense William J. Perry, flew to Ukraine to agree to the outlines of a trilateral agreement including U.S. assistance in dismantling the nuclear systems in Ukraine and compensation for the uranium in nuclear warheads. Participants were invited to Washington on 3–4 January to finalise the agreement.

 A Trilateral Statement with a detailed annex was agreed, based on the previously agreed terms but with detailed financial arrangements and a firm commitment to an early start to the transfer of at least 200 warheads to Russia and the production in Russia of nuclear reactor fuel for Ukraine. Warheads would be removed from all RT-23s (SS-24) within 10 months. However Ukraine did not want a commitment to transfer all warheads by 1 June 1996 to be made public for domestic political reasons, and Russia did not want the financial compensation for uranium made public concerned that Belarus and Kazakhstan would also demand this. It was decided to exclude these two matters from the published agreement, but cover them in private letters between the countries' presidents. One key point was that the English language draws a distinction between "guarantee" and "assurance", not present in Ukrainian or Russian, and it was agreed that the lesser sense of the English word "assurance" would apply for all three language versions of the statement.

President Clinton made a courtesy stop at Kyiv on his way to Moscow for the Trilateral Statement signing, only to discover Ukraine was having second thoughts about signing. Clinton told Kravchuk not signing would risk major damage to U.S.-Ukraine relations. After some minor rewording, the Trilateral Statement was signed by the three presidents in Moscow in front of the media on 14 January 1994.

After this was agreed, the U.S. used its Nunn–Lugar Cooperative Threat Reduction programme to provide financial, over $300 million (equivalent to $524 million in 2020), and technical assistance in decommissioning the nuclear weapons and delivery systems which took to 2008 to fully complete. The U.S. also doubled other economic aid to Ukraine to $310 million (equivalent to $541 million in 2020) for 1994.

In 2009, Russia and the United States released a joint statement that the memorandum's security assurances would still be respected after the expiration of the START Treaty.

Did Budapest Memorandum  Worked as Agreed ?

After the annexation of Crimea by Russia in 2014, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the UK, and United States stated that Russian involvement was a breach of its Budapest Memorandum obligations to Ukraine which had been transmitted to the United Nations under the signature of Sergey Lavrov and others, and in violation of Ukrainian sovereignty and territorial integrity.

On 4 March 2014, the Russian president Vladimir Putin replied to a question on the violation of the Budapest Memorandum, describing the current Ukrainian situation as a revolution: "a new state arises, but with this state and in respect to this state, we have not signed any obligatory documents”. Russia stated that it had never been under obligation to "force any part of Ukraine's civilian population to stay in Ukraine against its will". Russia suggested that the US was in violation of the Budapest Memorandum and described the Euromaidan as a US-instigated coup.

Source : Wikipedia

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