COP29 was a crucial juncture in the fight against climate change, but its outcomes fell far short of what is required to address the scale and urgency of the crisis. While incremental progress was made, the summit highlighted deep divisions and insufficient ambition, leaving the world with a daunting task ahead.

New Delhi(ABC Live):The 29th Conference of Parties (COP29) under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) concluded in Baku amid polarized reactions, reflecting both its incremental achievements and glaring shortcomings. With the climate crisis accelerating globally, the expectations for COP29 were immense—particularly on the issues of climate finance and fossil fuel transition. However, the outcomes reveal a summit that made some progress but largely failed to rise to the occasion, exposing deep-seated structural and political challenges in global climate governance.

Climate Finance: The Centerpiece of Discontent

At COP29, wealthy nations pledged $300 billion annually as part of a long-term climate finance target to reach $1.3 trillion by 2035. While some, including UN Climate Change Executive Secretary Simon Stiell, touted this as an "insurance policy for humanity," it was met with significant backlash, particularly from developing countries.

Developing Nations’ Disappointment

Developing nations, seeking over $1 trillion annually, criticized the target as “insultingly low.” Countries like Sierra Leone and India described the deal as a sign of a lack of goodwill from developed nations. India’s representative went further, calling the target a “paltry sum,” underscoring how inadequate financing undermines trust and ambition. Scientific estimates suggest that trillions are required annually to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement, leaving the agreed-upon target far below what is necessary to address the crisis comprehensively.

Structural Inequities

The financing gap highlights the deep inequality in global climate negotiations. Vulnerable nations, including small island states, pointed out the stark contrast between their precarious situations and the relative resilience of wealthier countries. As a representative from a small island nation lamented, "We are sinking," drawing attention to the existential threat many nations face due to insufficient action and financing.

Private Financing as a Double-Edged Sword

The European Union’s optimism about the role of private finance further underscores the divide. While the EU delegation argued that the new target would unlock significant private sector investments, historical trends suggest that relying heavily on private finance introduces risks, particularly for developing nations. Private investments often prioritize profitability over equity, leaving adaptation and resilience efforts—critical for vulnerable nations—underfunded. Private sector involvement alone cannot bridge the gap without robust public financing commitments.

Fossil Fuels: A Missed Opportunity for Bold Action

COP29’s focus on climate finance came at the cost of advancing commitments to phase out fossil fuels. Delegates failed to significantly build on the COP28 agreement, which called for a global transition away from fossil fuels. This omission is critical, as fossil fuels remain the largest driver of global greenhouse gas emissions.

Lack of Alignment with Science

The failure to address fossil fuel dependency undermines the broader goals of decarbonization. While financing is crucial, without parallel commitments to phase out fossil fuels and scale up renewable energy, the funds allocated risk being misaligned with long-term climate goals.

Compounding Risks for Vulnerable Nations

For nations on the frontlines of the climate crisis, the lack of ambition for fossil fuels exacerbates their vulnerability. It signals a continued reliance on carbon-intensive pathways by major emitters, further narrowing the window for achieving the 1.5°C target.

Negotiation Dynamics: Growing Fractures in Global Cooperation

COP29 exposed deep fissures in the global climate negotiation process. Reports of walkouts by representatives of Least Developed Countries (LDCs) and the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) reflect growing frustration with the lack of meaningful concessions from developed nations.

Trust Deficit

The persistent inability to meet the $100 billion annual finance goal—set in 2009 and due to expire in 2025—has already eroded trust. The new target, seen as insufficient, has only deepened this trust deficit. Without tangible progress, the credibility of the UNFCCC process risks further damage.

Power Imbalances

The disproportionate influence of wealthier nations in shaping the outcomes of COP29 also highlights the systemic power imbalances in climate negotiations. While vulnerable nations have the most to lose, their voices are often sidelined in favour of incremental measures favoured by developed countries.

Achievements Amid Challenges

Despite its flaws, COP29 did achieve some notable progress.

Global Carbon Market Rules

The agreement on rules for a UN-backed global carbon market is a step forward. By enabling the trading of carbon credits, this mechanism could incentivize emissions reductions and foster investments in climate-friendly projects. However, the effectiveness of such markets depends on robust enforcement mechanisms to prevent loopholes and ensure accountability.

Gender and Adaptation Programs

The extension of gender-focused programs and support for national adaptation plans in least-developed countries are positive developments. These measures recognize the disproportionate impacts of climate change on women and vulnerable communities, providing a framework for more inclusive action.

The Road Ahead: Lessons for COP30

COP29’s shortcomings underscore the urgent need for a reset in global climate diplomacy. As the world looks toward COP30 in Belém, Brazil, several priorities emerge:

1. Scaling Up Ambition
   COP30 must deliver a far more ambitious financing target that aligns with scientific recommendations and meets the needs of developing nations.
2. Addressing Fossil Fuel Dependency
   A concrete roadmap for phasing out fossil fuels must take centre stage, supported by actionable commitments from major emitters.
3. Rebuilding Trust
   Developed nations must demonstrate goodwill by fulfilling existing commitments and providing transparent timelines for disbursing pledged funds.
4. Empowering Vulnerable Nations
   The voices of vulnerable nations must be amplified, with greater equity in decision-making processes to ensure their needs are prioritized.

Conclusion

COP29 was a crucial juncture in the fight against climate change, but its outcomes fell far short of what is required to address the scale and urgency of the crisis. While incremental progress was made, the summit highlighted deep divisions and insufficient ambition, leaving the world with a daunting task ahead. COP30 must go beyond symbolic gestures and deliver transformative action to bridge the trust deficit, mobilize adequate resources, and accelerate the global transition to a sustainable future. Only then can the UNFCCC process regain its credibility and effectively combat the climate emergency.