The Emissions Gap Report 2024 presents a comprehensive, data-backed analysis of global mitigation efforts and their shortcomings. The report’s strengths lie in its detailed breakdown of emissions trends, sectoral potentials, and quantified reduction targets. However, it falls short in addressing enforceability and the structural barriers hindering progress in developing economies.

New Delhi (ABC Live): The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) published the Emissions Gap Report 2024, a significant document that highlights the widening disparity between pledged greenhouse gas (GHG) reductions and the levels needed to meet the Paris Agreement targets.

ABC Green Editor, critical analysed the Emission report writes as under;

The report underscores the urgency of enhanced mitigation efforts while emphasizing actionable opportunities for countries to align their nationally determined contributions (NDCs) with pathways limiting warming to 1.5°C. Below is a critical assessment of its strengths, limitations, and implications.

Rigorous Data-Driven Analysis
The report employs updated emission data for 2023, revealing a record-high global total of 57.1 GtCO₂e, which increased by 1.3% compared to 2022 levels​. This surpasses pre-pandemic averages (2010–2019) of 0.8% annual growth, indicating a disturbing trend. Major contributing sectors include:

Power Sector: 26% of total emissions (15.1 GtCO₂e)

Transport: 8.4 GtCO₂e (19.5% annual growth from aviation)

Agriculture: 6.5 GtCO₂e

Industry: 6.5 GtCO₂e

The detailed breakdown enables policymakers to target sectors with the highest impact.

Highlighting Disparities in Emissions
The report underscores global inequities in emissions:

G20 Countries contribute 77% of global emissions, while the African Union contributes only 6%​.

Per capita emissions:

United States: 18 tCO₂e/capita (3x the world average of 6.6 tCO₂e).

India: 2.9 tCO₂e/capita (below global average).

Historical emissions are also skewed, with the United States and European Union (27) contributing 20% and 12%, respectively, to cumulative CO₂ emissions from 1850–2022​.

Identification of Mitigation Potentials
The report quantifies sectoral emission reduction potentials based on existing technologies:

2030: 31 GtCO₂e/year mitigation potential at costs below $200/tCO₂e

2035: 41 GtCO₂e/year mitigation potential​.

Key contributions come from:

Solar PV and wind: 27% by 2030, 38% by 2035.

Forest management: 19–20% of total mitigation potential.

This data-driven approach highlights actionable, cost-effective pathways to bridge the emissions gap.

2. Limitations of the Report

2.1 Policy Ambiguity and Enforcement Gaps
The report identifies a lack of implementation in current nationally determined contributions (NDCs), where global emissions are projected at 57 GtCO₂e by 2030 under existing policies, exceeding NDC targets by 2–5 GtCO₂e​.

11 out of 20 G20 countries are off-track to achieve their 2030 NDCs.

NDCs fall short of the reductions required for Paris-aligned pathways:

1.5°C: 42% reduction by 2030, requiring 22 GtCO₂e/year cuts.

2°C: 28% reduction by 2030, requiring 14 GtCO₂e/year cuts​.

While the report highlights these gaps, it lacks concrete mechanisms to enforce stricter compliance or accountability.

2.2 Insufficient Addressing of Financial Constraints
The report calls for a sixfold increase in mitigation investments, but offers limited solutions for mobilizing the $0.9–$2.1 trillion/year needed for the net-zero transition​.

Emerging Market and Developing Economies (EMDEs) require substantial financial support, as investments in these regions have stagnated since 2008.

Financial challenges, especially post-COVID-19, are not adequately explored, leaving a gap between ambition and feasibility.

2.3 Technological Over-Reliance
While renewables are promising, the report does not fully address challenges such as energy storage, grid upgrades, and supply chain dependencies. For instance, reliance on critical minerals (e.g., lithium, cobalt) for solar PV and wind poses geopolitical and environmental risks​.

3. Key Data-Driven Insights

The emissions gap in 2030 and 2035 remains substantial:

2030:

14 GtCO₂e gap to limit warming to 2°C.

22 GtCO₂e gap to limit warming to 1.5°C.

2035:

18 GtCO₂e (2°C target), 29 GtCO₂e (1.5°C target)​.

Without immediate action, achieving 1.5°C will require annual emissions reductions of 7.5% (2024–2035). Delays until 2030 would necessitate reductions of 15%/year​.

4. Implications for Policymakers

4.1 G20’s Critical Role
The G20, representing 77% of global emissions, must lead in mitigation. The report shows that current NDCs from G20 nations are misaligned with Paris targets:

G20 collective NDCs fall short of the cost-effective pathway for 1.5°C​.

4.2 Strengthening NDCs for 2035
The report urges countries to submit ambitious NDCs for 2035 that reflect:

Quantitative targets aligned with 42–57% reductions by 2035 (compared to 2019 levels).

Sector-specific pathways (e.g., tripling renewable capacity, doubling energy efficiency rates).

4.3 Financial Reform and Investment
Meeting global mitigation targets requires unprecedented financial commitments:

Aligning investments towards EMDEs to address equity.

Reforming international financial systems to mobilize climate finance.

5. Conclusion

The Emissions Gap Report 2024 presents a comprehensive, data-backed analysis of global mitigation efforts and their shortcomings. The report’s strengths lie in its detailed breakdown of emissions trends, sectoral potentials, and quantified reduction targets. However, it falls short in addressing enforceability and the structural barriers hindering progress in developing economies.

The data highlights the urgency: global emissions must drop by 42% by 2030 to keep 1.5°C within reach. Without immediate action, future reductions will require unsustainable rates of decarbonization. G20 nations, financial institutions, and policymakers must step up efforts, bridging ambition with tangible action to avert catastrophic climate outcomes.