hypersonic weapons have the potential to be a critical asset in warfare, their true value is still unclear. They may represent a leap in military technology, but they are not likely to redefine global power dynamics in the immediate future. Their high cost, coupled with the challenges of defence and interception, suggests that their deployment may be more limited than anticipated. As the war in Ukraine and ongoing technological developments continue to unfold, a clearer picture of the strategic role of hypersonic weapons will emerge.

New Delhi (ABC Live): The rapid development of hypersonic weapons has created a stir in global defence circles, with military leaders, strategists, and policymakers debating their potential to change the landscape of modern warfare. Hypersonic weapons are often seen as the next frontier in advanced military technology, traveling at speeds exceeding Mach 5 (approximately 6,174 km/h). But do these weapons truly represent a paradigm shift, or is the hype surrounding them merely a result of speculative excitement and political posturing?

This article provides a critical analysis, incorporating both the technical and geopolitical implications of hypersonic weapons, with insights drawn from the ongoing Ukraine war.

What Are Hypersonic Weapons?

Hypersonic weapons are categorized into Hypersonic Cruise Missiles (HCMs) and Hypersonic Glide Vehicles (HGVs), both capable of reaching speeds greater than Mach 5. HCMs are powered by advanced scramjet engines that allow for sustained high-speed flight, while HGVs use a rocket to gain altitude before gliding at hypersonic speeds toward their targets.

Key characteristics of hypersonic weapons include:

Speed: Mach 5 or greater (6,174 km/h or faster)

Maneuverability: Capable of unpredictable, sharp turns that make interception difficult

Altitude: They can fly at both low and high altitudes, increasing their unpredictability

While these attributes make hypersonic weapons highly advanced, their real-world effectiveness and strategic value are still open to debate.

Technological Feasibility and Challenges

The technologies behind hypersonic weapons, particularly in propulsion and materials science, are at the cutting edge. Developing reliable hypersonic engines, such as scramjets, requires overcoming significant hurdles, including:

Heat and Pressure Resistance: At hypersonic speeds, the air resistance generates extreme heat. Materials capable of withstanding these conditions without degrading are costly and difficult to engineer.

Guidance and Control: Hypersonic weapons require advanced navigation systems to ensure accuracy. Maneuvering at these speeds while maintaining target precision is a major challenge, as conventional GPS-based systems are often ineffective at such high velocities.

Despite these challenges, countries such as the U.S., Russia, and China have made significant progress. For instance, in 2022, the Russian military successfully tested the Avangard HGV, a system that can reportedly reach speeds of Mach 27 (33,000 km/h), and in the same year, China successfully launched a DF-17 HGV in its first live-fire test.

Ukraine War Insight: A Glimpse into Hypersonic Weapons in Combat

The use of hypersonic weapons in the Ukraine conflict has demonstrated both the potential and limitations of these advanced systems. Russia, which has deployed several hypersonic missiles against Ukraine, provides valuable data for understanding their tactical value in modern warfare.

Russia’s Use of Hypersonic Weapons: Since the onset of the Ukraine war, Russia has employed its Kinzhal missile (an air-launched HCM) for precision strikes against Ukrainian infrastructure. According to reports, Russia has launched over 20 hypersonic missile strikes by mid-2023. The Kinzhal missile, which Russia claims to be unstoppable by Ukrainian defense systems, has been used to target air defense radars, military depots, and other critical infrastructure. Russian authorities assert that these strikes have resulted in over 90?struction of their intended targets, although Ukrainian officials report a lower success rate.

However, the actual effectiveness of hypersonic weapons in altering battlefield outcomes has been contested. Despite these precision strikes, the war has largely remained a grind of artillery exchanges, drone warfare, and infantry combat. Hypersonic weapons have not decisively tilted the balance of power in favor of Russia, suggesting that while they offer certain advantages in speed and surprise, they do not necessarily guarantee strategic victory.

Ukraine’s Countermeasures and Adaptations: Ukraine's defense systems, particularly Patriot missiles and S-300 systems, have been integral in intercepting conventional missile threats. However, their ability to defend against hypersonic missiles remains a critical gap. For instance, in 2023, Ukraine's air defense systems reportedly intercepted 5 out of 9 incoming hypersonic missiles, but several others managed to penetrate defenses, causing significant damage to targets.

The deployment of hypersonic weapons in the Ukraine conflict is also notable because it reveals the limitations of missile defense systems that have been effective against slower, more predictable threats. With Russia’s hypersonic missiles, Ukraine's ability to predict impact zones or intercept incoming projectiles is severely compromised.

Geopolitical and Strategic Implications

The ongoing use of hypersonic weapons in the Ukraine war offers several important lessons for global military dynamics and geopolitics:

Missile Défense Gaps: The inability to intercept hypersonic weapons highlights critical vulnerabilities in missile defense systems worldwide. This has pushed nations like the U.S., NATO members, and China to invest more in next-generation defense technologies. According to a 2022 study by the U.S. Department of Defense, hypersonic weapons could eventually undermine much of the existing missile defense infrastructure, particularly when employed in swarms or combined with decoys.

Cost of Arms Race: The rush to develop hypersonic weaponry among global powers has the potential to escalate an arms race. Russia and China have led the way, but the U.S. has committed billions to counter these threats. According to the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), the U.S. has invested over $7 billion in hypersonic weapon programs in recent years. This includes the Hypersonic Air-breathing Weapon Concept (HAWC) and ARRW programs aimed at countering hypersonic threats. However, these investments also come with concerns about their long-term cost-effectiveness and whether they can deliver on their promises.

Escalation and Global Stability: The hypersonic arms race has the potential to destabilize existing global security frameworks. The fear of surprise strikes, particularly with nuclear-armed hypersonic missiles, increases the risk of miscalculation and inadvertent escalation. In the case of Ukraine, the use of hypersonic weapons has contributed to a climate of uncertainty, where global powers must account for new types of threats that bypass traditional defense systems.

Data-Driven Insights on Hypersonic Weapon Effectiveness

While hypersonic weapons have been employed in relatively small quantities, available data provides some insights into their effectiveness:

Russian Hypersonic Strikes in Ukraine: By mid-2023, Russia had launched over 20 hypersonic missile strikes, targeting military infrastructure. These strikes included:

50% targeting air defense systems

30% targeting military depots and warehouses

20% targeting civilian infrastructure

Ukrainian sources claim that 5-7% of these hypersonic missiles were intercepted by existing air defence systems, highlighting the significant challenge posed by these weapons.

Countermeasures Development: In response to these threats, Ukraine, alongside NATO, has ramped up efforts to develop countermeasures. Missile defence spending by NATO members has risen by 12% in the past year, with specific focus on high-speed tracking and interception technologies to counter the hypersonic threat.

Cost vs. Benefit: A Critical Assessment

Hypersonic weapons are undoubtedly expensive to develop, with an estimated cost of $100-150 million per missile for systems like the Kinzhal. Despite their high cost, these missiles have not proven to be a game-changer in the Ukraine war. Conventional missiles, artillery, and drones have played a far more significant role in shaping the conflict. Therefore, the question remains: do the benefits of hypersonic weapons outweigh their costs?

Paradigm Shift or Empty Hype?

The hype surrounding hypersonic weapons is undeniably significant, with global powers pouring resources into their development. However, the use of hypersonic weapons in the Ukraine conflict highlights several key challenges and limitations. The weapons’ speed and ability to bypass existing missile defence systems are certainly significant, but their actual impact on the battlefield has been overstated. The reality is that, despite their technological advances, hypersonic weapons have not yet demonstrated the ability to decisively alter the course of a conflict.

In conclusion, while hypersonic weapons have the potential to be a critical asset in warfare, their true value is still unclear. They may represent a leap in military technology, but they are not likely to redefine global power dynamics in the immediate future. Their high cost, coupled with the challenges of defence and interception, suggests that their deployment may be more limited than anticipated. As the war in Ukraine and ongoing technological developments continue to unfold, a clearer picture of the strategic role of hypersonic weapons will emerge.