The failed attack offers Iran valuable insights to refine future strikes, potentially sharing lessons with Russia to enhance their capabilities against US- and NATO-provided defenses in Ukraine.

New Delhi (ABC Live): The April 13, 2024 missile-drone attack by Iran on Israel likely aimed to inflict substantial damage without triggering a massive Israeli retaliation. It was a deliberate attempt at success, borrowing tactics from Russian strikes on Ukraine. However, the attack fell short of its intended impact, possibly due to Iran underestimating Israel's superior defense capabilities compared to Ukraine.

The assault involved around 170 drones, 30 cruise missiles, and 120 ballistic missiles. Drones were launched ahead of the ballistic missiles, likely to coincide with the cruise missiles, intending to overwhelm Israeli air defenses. While the Iranians anticipated limited success with the drones and cruise missiles, they likely hoped for higher accuracy with the ballistic missiles.

Despite launching approximately 120 ballistic missiles, only a few managed to breach Israeli defenses and hit near military bases. This contrasts with Ukrainian defenses, which intercept about 46% of Russian ballistic missiles. Israel's defense superiority, including its robust anti-missile systems and considerable distance from Iran, played significant roles. Moreover, Israel's interception efforts involved a large number of combat aircraft, a capability Ukraine lacks.

Unlike Ukraine, Israel benefits from ample interceptors and superior air defense systems. Additionally, Israel's distance from Iran allowed interception before threats entered its missile-defense umbrella. Ukraine's inability to counter Russian drones and cruise missiles with combat aircraft highlights a capability gap that Israel may not face.

The failed attack offers Iran valuable insights to refine future strikes, potentially sharing lessons with Russia to enhance their capabilities against US- and NATO-provided defenses in Ukraine. However, Iran's ability to penetrate Israeli defenses poses a significant security risk, as evidenced by the attack's limited success. Israel and its allies must remain vigilant, as even a minor breach could lead to severe civilian casualties and infrastructure damage, mirroring the disproportionate effects of Russian strikes on Ukraine.