The failed attack offers Iran valuable insights to refine future strikes, potentially sharing lessons with Russia to enhance their capabilities against US- and NATO-provided defenses in Ukraine.
Explained: How Iran Used Ukraine War Experiences Against Israel?
New Delhi (ABC Live): The
April 13, 2024 missile-drone attack by Iran on Israel likely aimed to inflict
substantial damage without triggering a massive Israeli retaliation. It was a
deliberate attempt at success, borrowing tactics from Russian strikes on
Ukraine. However, the attack fell short of its intended impact, possibly due to
Iran underestimating Israel's superior defense capabilities compared to
Ukraine.
The assault involved
around 170 drones, 30 cruise missiles, and 120 ballistic missiles. Drones were
launched ahead of the ballistic missiles, likely to coincide with the cruise
missiles, intending to overwhelm Israeli air defenses. While the Iranians
anticipated limited success with the drones and cruise missiles, they likely
hoped for higher accuracy with the ballistic missiles.
Despite launching
approximately 120 ballistic missiles, only a few managed to breach Israeli
defenses and hit near military bases. This contrasts with Ukrainian defenses,
which intercept about 46% of Russian ballistic missiles. Israel's defense
superiority, including its robust anti-missile systems and considerable
distance from Iran, played significant roles. Moreover, Israel's interception
efforts involved a large number of combat aircraft, a capability Ukraine lacks.
Unlike Ukraine, Israel
benefits from ample interceptors and superior air defense systems.
Additionally, Israel's distance from Iran allowed interception before threats
entered its missile-defense umbrella. Ukraine's inability to counter Russian
drones and cruise missiles with combat aircraft highlights a capability gap
that Israel may not face.
The failed attack
offers Iran valuable insights to refine future strikes, potentially sharing
lessons with Russia to enhance their capabilities against US- and NATO-provided
defenses in Ukraine. However, Iran's ability to penetrate Israeli defenses
poses a significant security risk, as evidenced by the attack's limited
success. Israel and its allies must remain vigilant, as even a minor breach
could lead to severe civilian casualties and infrastructure damage, mirroring
the disproportionate effects of Russian strikes on Ukraine.