By authorizing ATACMS strikes inside Russia, the US has effectively intensified the conflict, challenging Moscow’s sense of security within its borders. While the strikes may not decisively alter the war’s trajectory, they will likely force Russia to rethink its strategies, spreading its defenses thinner and increasing the costs of its invasion.

New Delhi (ABC Live): US President Joe Biden has permitted Ukraine to use US-supplied Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) for limited strikes within Russian territory. Manufactured by Lockheed Martin, these long-range missiles enhance Ukraine’s ability to target Russian military infrastructure far beyond the frontlines. The move comes as Moscow continues its relentless campaign of missile and drone attacks on Ukrainian cities, power grids, and key infrastructure.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy had long pushed for Western approval to expand Ukraine’s operational reach, arguing that hitting strategic targets inside Russia is essential to counteract the aggressor’s advantage.

How Far Can ATACMS Strike Inside Russia?

ATACMS missiles boast a range of up to 300 kilometres (186 miles), putting a vast swath of Russian territory within Ukraine's striking distance when launched from locations near the border. This range allows Ukraine to reach:

1. Military Bases and Logistics Hubs
• Rostov-on-Don: A critical logistics hub supporting Russian operations in southern Ukraine.
• Kursk: Known for hosting Russian military depots and airbases that supply troops in eastern Ukraine.
2. Command and Control Centers
• ATACMS strikes could target facilities where Russian commanders coordinate operations, significantly disrupting troop movements and decision-making.
3. Industrial and Ammunition Production Sites
• Factories producing military equipment, including missiles and drones, in regions like Bryansk or Voronezh, are within range. Disabling such sites would hinder Russia's ability to sustain its war machine.
4. Critical Infrastructure
• The Kerch Bridge: Connecting Crimea to mainland Russia, the bridge is a lifeline for resupplying Russian forces in occupied Crimea. Striking it would cripple Russian supply chains in the region.
5. Airfields and Supply Routes
• Strategic airbases used to launch aerial attacks on Ukraine, such as those in Belgorod, could be neutralized, reducing Russia’s ability to carry out strikes.

Strategic Impact of ATACMS Strikes

The deployment of ATACMS marks a significant shift in the conflict’s dynamics, as it enables Ukraine to inflict damage deep inside Russia, disrupting operations and forcing a reallocation of resources.

• Forcing Russia on the Defensive
  With high-value targets now vulnerable, Russia will need to bolster its air defenses and potentially pull back resources from the frontlines to protect critical infrastructure.
• Boosting Ukrainian Morale
  The ability to strike within Russian territory sends a strong message of Ukrainian resilience and could rally further domestic and international support for its war effort.
• Raising Costs for Russia
  Each successful strike within Russian territory could severely disrupt supply chains, increase logistical challenges, and force Moscow to commit additional resources to infrastructure repair and military production.

Russia’s Potential Responses

Given the extended range and precision of ATACMS, Moscow may escalate its retaliation in several ways:

1. Broadening Target Strikes
   Russia may intensify attacks on Ukraine’s critical infrastructure, such as energy grids, water supply systems, and civilian hubs, to pressure Kyiv into reconsidering its use of long-range missiles.
2. Expanding the Conflict Zone
   Moscow might respond by threatening or carrying out attacks near Ukraine's western borders, potentially endangering supply routes through neighbouring NATO countries like Poland.
3. Relocating Military Assets
   With key facilities now at risk, Russia may move command centres, ammunition depots, and airbases farther from Ukraine, complicating its own logistics and lengthening supply lines.
4. Enhancing Missile Defenses
   Russia could deploy additional S-400 systems, Pantsir-S1 units, and radar systems to shield critical infrastructure, stretching its already burdened military resources.
5. Cyber and Propaganda Campaigns
   Russia may intensify cyberattacks on Ukraine and its allies, targeting financial institutions, energy grids, and government systems, while ramping up disinformation to frame Ukraine’s strikes as a provocation.
6. Increased Nuclear Posturing
   Moscow may use heightened nuclear rhetoric to deter further Western support for Ukraine, including relocating tactical nuclear weapons closer to Ukraine’s borders or staging military drills.

Balancing Risks and Rewards

Although ATACMS strikes offer Ukraine a significant tactical advantage, their strategic use must balance the potential risks of escalation. Analysts suggest Kyiv will focus on high-value targets such as military depots, key supply nodes, and command centers, aiming to maximize the impact of the limited stock of missiles provided by the US.

A recent study highlights that hundreds of Russian military sites remain within ATACMS’ range despite Russia relocating some assets. However, the Pentagon has confirmed that the US has a finite number of these missiles, limiting their use scope.

A Western diplomat described the decision as “symbolic and strategic,” signalling unwavering Western support for Ukraine while underscoring the risks of pushing Moscow further. "This move raises the stakes for Russia, demonstrating that the costs of war will continue to rise," they said.

The Broader Implications

By authorizing ATACMS strikes inside Russia, the US has effectively intensified the conflict, challenging Moscow’s sense of security within its borders. While the strikes may not decisively alter the war’s trajectory, they will likely force Russia to rethink its strategies, spreading its defenses thinner and increasing the costs of its invasion.

This escalation underscores the evolving nature of the conflict and the delicate balance of providing Ukraine with robust support while mitigating the risks of a broader war.