Under Trump, the U.S. is pushing Ukraine for a rare-earth minerals deal in exchange for military aid amid the ongoing Ukraine-Russia war. This move aligns with domestic efforts to secure and diversify critical mineral supplies—vital for EVs, defense systems, and other key technologies—while reducing reliance on China and boosting economic and national security.

New Delhi (ABC Live): Under Trump, the U.S. is pushing Ukraine for a rare-earth minerals deal in exchange for military aid amid the ongoing Ukraine-Russia war. This move aligns with domestic efforts to secure and diversify critical mineral supplies—vital for EVs, defense systems, and other key technologies—while reducing reliance on China and boosting economic and national security.

Overview of U.S. Critical Minerals Trade

The United States imported $9.3 billion worth of critical minerals in 2023.

China supplies over 60% of the world’s rare earth elements (REEs), while the U.S. relies on imports for 100% of 17 key minerals.

The top sources of U.S. mineral imports are:

Canada (20%)

China (16%)

Mexico (15%)

South Africa (10%)

Australia (8%)

The U.S. has made deals with Japan, the EU, Canada, and Australia to secure these supplies.

Key U.S. Mineral Agreements: Data Insights

        U.S.-Japan Critical Minerals Agreement

Focus: Lithium, cobalt, nickel, graphite, and manganese (for EVs)

2023 Trade Value: $1.2 billion in mineral exports from Japan to the U.S.

Impact: Reduces reliance on China for EV battery materials.

EV Market Growth: The U.S. EV market is projected to reach $137 billion by 2030, increasing demand for minerals.

       U.S.-EU Critical Minerals Agreement

Focus: Expanding IRA tax credits to EU-sourced minerals

Key Minerals: Lithium, cobalt, and nickel.

EU’s Critical Mineral Dependency on China: Over 70% of Europe’s lithium is refined in China.

Expected U.S. Imports from the EU: Estimated at $2 billion annually post-agreement.

      U.S.-Australia Rare Earths Partnership

Investment: The U.S. committed $800 million to Australian rare earth projects.

Production Increase: Australia’s rare earth output is expected to grow by 40% by 2026, supplying 20% of U.S. demand.

Key Minerals: Neodymium, dysprosium (used in fighter jets, wind turbines).

U.S. Domestic Mineral Production: Data Breakdown

Key Insight: The U.S. imports over 90% of lithium and cobalt, vital for batteries.

Strategic Shift: The U.S. is increasing domestic mining, but environmental concerns delay projects.

The China Factor: Import Risk & Dependency

China processes 85% of the world's rare earths and controls the supply chain.

China’s Export Restrictions:

In 2023, China restricted gallium and germanium exports, vital for semiconductors.

Impact: U.S. semiconductor companies faced 30% cost increases.

U.S. Mitigation Strategy:

Investing $3 billion in new mineral processing plants in Texas and California.

Strategic Stockpiles: The U.S. increased rare earth reserves by 45% in 2024.

Future Trends & Data Forecasting

Global Critical Mineral Demand Growth:

Lithium demand expected to rise by 700% by 2030 (EV growth).

Cobalt and nickel demand to double by 2035.

U.S. Investment in Mining:

$5 billion allocated for domestic lithium production.

$1.5 billion for rare earth refineries in Nevada and Texas.

Trade Shift: By 2026, the U.S. expects to reduce Chinese critical mineral imports by 40%.

Ukraine’s Critical Mineral Reserves: A Data Perspective

Ukraine has one of the richest deposits of strategic minerals in Europe, making it a prime target for U.S. investment and control. Below is a breakdown of Ukraine’s key mineral reserves and their estimated economic value:

Total Estimated Value of Ukraine’s critical minerals exceed $75 billion.

U.S. is 100?pendent on imports for titanium and graphite, making Ukraine a crucial alternative to China and Russia.

Ukraine’s rare earth reserves alone could reduce U.S. dependency on China by 25% if fully utilized.

U.S. Geopolitical Strategy: Reducing China & Russia’s Influence

China currently controls over 60% of global rare earth production and 85% of refining capacity.

Russia supplies 90% of the U.S.’s titanium needs, making it a national security risk.

If the U.S. secures Ukraine’s mineral supply, it can:

Cut China’s dominance in rare earths by 20-30%.

Reduce its titanium reliance on Russia by over 50%.

Strengthen its supply chain for EV batteries, fighter jets, and semiconductors.

U.S. Investment & Pressure: Follow the Money

U.S. Financial & Military Aid as Leverage

Since the Russia-Ukraine war began in 2022, the U.S. has provided:

$113 billion in total aid (military, economic, and humanitarian).

$61 billion in military aid (including advanced weapons and air defense systems).

$10 billion in economic aid to keep Ukraine’s government operational.

Data Correlation: Aid vs. Mineral Deals

Pattern Insight:

As U.S. aid increases, Ukraine signs more mineral deals with American companies.

By 2024, U.S. companies control 30-40% of Ukraine’s key mining projects.

U.S. Companies & Investment in Ukraine’s Mining Sector

Several American corporations and government-backed entities are aggressively investing in Ukraine’s mineral resources:

Strategic Takeaways:

Tesla and GM are securing lithium and cobalt supplies for U.S. EV dominance.

Raytheon and Lockheed are targeting titanium for fighter jets and defense applications.

U.S. government-backed DFC is directly funding Ukraine’s rare earth industry.

China & Russia’s Countermeasures: The Battle for Ukraine’s Minerals

China’s Involvement in Ukraine’s Mining Industry

China had prior agreements with Ukraine for lithium and rare earths before the U.S. stepped in.

In 2021, China’s state-owned Bohai Harvest RST had a $3 billion lithium mining deal, but Ukraine canceled it under U.S. pressure in 2023.

China still holds a 15% stake in Ukrainian mineral projects, but the U.S. is trying to force Kyiv to revoke these contracts.

Russia’s Strategic Attacks on Ukraine’s Mining Facilities

Since 2022, Russia has targeted key mining regions in Ukraine, including:

Zaporizhzhia (Lithium & Rare Earths)

Dnipro (Titanium)

Kryvyi Rih (Nickel & Cobalt)

Russia aims to deny Ukraine and the U.S. access to these strategic minerals.

Ukraine’s mining output dropped by 30% due to Russian attacks, forcing Kyiv to accelerate deals with U.S. firms for reconstruction and security.

Future Projections & Economic Impact

U.S.-Ukraine Mineral Trade Projections (2025-2030)

If Ukraine’s mineral industry develops fully under U.S. control, the estimated export revenue to the U.S. will grow significantly:

By 2030, Ukraine could supply nearly half of U.S. critical mineral needs.

This would reduce reliance on China by at least 30% and fully replace Russia for titanium supply.

Final Conclusion: U.S. Strategic Takeover of Ukraine’s Minerals

Why the U.S. is Forcing Ukraine into Mineral Deals

Reduce U.S. dependency on China & Russia for rare earths, titanium, and lithium.

Secure supply chains for EVs, semiconductors, and military defense.

Leverage U.S. financial and military aid to control Ukraine’s resources.

Weaken China’s influence in Ukraine by canceling pre-existing deals.

Ensure long-term U.S. dominance in global mineral markets.

Key Takeaways from the Data

Over $75 billion in mineral wealth is at stake in Ukraine.

U.S. firms already control 30-40% of Ukraine’s mining sector.

By 2030, Ukraine could replace China & Russia as a primary U.S. mineral supplier.